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Chart of the Day / Why Markets Fell Apart

Why Markets Fell Apart

August 13, 2018

The Turkish lira continues to fall.

And with it, U.S. markets.

Worries over a fragile Turkish economy and risk of contagion in Europe sent markets into a tailspin on Friday.   With it, the lira fell another 17% against the U.S. dollar. Part of the reason for the decline was due to increased tariffs from President Trump.

“I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time,” he tweeted.

That follows Turkey’s request for all citizens to convert their dollars into foreign dollars, as well as gold holdings into lira. While we wait out the tension, it’s best to stay on the sidelines to see if we’ll see further chaos with the lira, or calm, which could send markets higher in a relief rally.

Technically, we just failed at double top resistance on the Dow at the upper Bollinger Band (2,20).  Along with that, we’re seeing a reversal on relative strength (RSI), MACD and Williams’ %R (W%R).  Worse case, should the slide continue, we could potentially test prior support levels around 24,000.

It’s a wait and see at the moment.  So let’s sit tight for today.