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Chart of the Day / Why Gold Prices Are About to Break Higher

Why Gold Prices Are About to Break Higher

February 20, 2019

2018 wasn’t the best year for gold prices.

Throughout the year, we watched it slipped from a lofty high of $1,369 to a low of $1,180.

However, as the Federal Reserve walks back its promise of higher interest rates, we’ve watched as gold exploded to a 10-month high of $1,344 – which wipes out 2018 losses.

Remember, the U.S. central bank signaled that it was finished raising interest rates following two aggressive years of hikes. That stands in stark contrast to its forecast for at least two hikes in 2019 and another in 2020, per its December 2018 statements.

“In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes,” noted the U.S. central bank.

That “patience” from the Fed is a sizable catalyst for gold prices.

That’s because steadier short rates “tend to support gold because the metal competes with cash and the higher yields make cash more attractive. The dollar is up slightly Thursday and is down less than 1% this year. The dollar is holding up well considering the Fed’s more accommodative stance,” says Barron’s.

At the same time, gold is rising on fear, as well.

The uncertainty of trade talks and fears U.S. markets could be running out of steam is also creating capital flow into protective assets, such as gold.  Plus, the issue with Brexit has the potential to derail Europe, which has sent quite a few investors into golden safe havens, too.

“Gold prices continue to charge higher in an environment marked by heightened political uncertainty in the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S.,” says Christopher Vecchio, senior currency strategist at DailyFX, as quoted by Kitco.

With the Federal Reserve, and sizable geopolitical headwinds, we wouldn’t be shocked to see gold price challenge $1,400.