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Weekly Position Updates / Extreme Trade Updates (10/8/18)

Extreme Trade Updates (10/8/18)

October 8, 2018

The following trades remain on hold:

Applied Materials (AMAT) stock — $49.90

We’re a bit tired of waiting for this stock to move.  It last traded at $37.25.  Sell it for a loss here.  We can invest money in a better stock.

iQIYI Inc. (IQ) stock – $30.85 entry

We closed the calls for a loss, but we still hold the IQ stock.  It last traded at $25.27.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) — $248.96

The stock now sits at $262.50 and remains a hold.  We have a near-term price target of $280.

Raytheon (RTN) — $187.12

RTN is back up to $206.75.  Hold the stock with a near-term price target of $210.

Twitter (TWTR) — $32.68

Hold the stock.  It’s aggressively oversold at a current price of $28.44.

Facebook (FB) stock– $175.84

Sell the stock here at the moment.  We can always buy back in at a later date.  At the moment, it’s been hit with trust issues. 

Some analysts will tell you to buy Facebook [NYSE:FB] now as it attempts to find its footing.

But to be honest, now isn’t the best time to consider that.

There are two reasons.  One, the stock looks a bit wobbly at double-bottom support dating back to April 2018.  Should it fail to hold here, where others suggest buying, we could see a test of $150 shortly.  Technically, wait for it to bottom out before buying.  And be sure to confirm the move, too.  The last thing you want to do is buy a false breakout.

Two, there’s a major trust issue that could cost Facebook millions in ad revenue.  Earlier this year, the company acknowledged that Cambridge Analytica harvested up to 87 million Facebook users without permission.  That was six months ago.  Mark Zuckerberg even testified before Congress that “We have to do a lot of work building trust back.”  But there’s little evidence that something, if anything has been done.

Just the other week, 50 million accounts were hacked.  That quickly led to further decay of Facebook users on the brink of leaving in the last debacle.  Some now believe this latest incident could force up to 10% of users not to return to Facebook at all.  And that, they say, could cost Facebook up to $200 million in advertising revenue.   As reported by MarketWatch, “Evercore ISI Securities analyst Anthony DiClemente noted that ‘if the impacted accounts were highly engaged users, we believe there would be a meaningful propensity to log back in, limiting the impact to engagement trends.’ But, he added, for every 10% of impacted users who do not return to the platform because of this breach, ‘Facebook would lose roughly $200 million in ad revenue.’”

Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) — $10.25
ABX January 18, 2019 10 calls — $1.01

As gold begins to rebound higher, related stocks are beginning to push higher.  We have a near-term price target of $11.50 on ABX.  It last traded at $11.27.

Micron Technology (NYSE:MU) — $49.85
MU October 19, 2018 52.50 calls — $2.46

The stock pulled back in recent days on a tech sell off to $43.58.  Hold both positions at the moment.  MU has become aggressively oversold.

Weight Watchers (NYSE:WTW) — $73.87
WTW October 19, 2018 80 calls — $2.85

Still oversold, we have a near-term price target of $92.50.  That would refill its bearish gap from August 6, 2018.  Hold.

Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG) — $10.84
GG January 18, 2019 11 calls — 78 cents

The stock is down slightly at $9.85.  We continue to hold on oversold conditions.  We have a $15 price target.

OrganiGram Holdings (OTC:OGRMF) — $4.98

As the marijuana story heats up on corporate interest and Canadian legalization in October 2018, stocks such as OGRMF should continue to push higher.  It last traded at $5.90.

Newell Brands (NYSE:NWL) — $21.55
NWL December 21, 2018 22 calls — $1.58

NWL is still technically oversold.  With patience, we believe it could eventually refill its bearish gap around $26.40.  Hold.

Kroger Company (KR) — $29.65

KR is still oversold, now trading at $29.07.  It’s a hold.  We’re looking for a bearish gap refill at $31.50.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) — $20.02.

ACAD now sits at $21.  While it’s a bit overbought here, we are holding long-term.

Zayo Group (ZAYO) — $34.85

ZAYO now sits at $33.  As we near the 5G boom effect, we’d like to see ZAYO refill its bearish gap at $38 a share.  Hold.